Sadiq’s Stats

There remains a wide spread of opinion on the economic outlook for the UK. The reason for the uncertainty is that so much hinges on polarised political outcomes (both European and domestic), which have not yet crystallised. Accordingly, forecasts now typically come with caveats setting out the assumed Brexit scenario. The same is true of the report commissioned by Sadiq Khan, designed to help the Government ‘understand the consequences of each scenario [of 5] they’re considering with the EU’. The conclusion is that we will lose half a million jobs and almost £50bn in investment in a hard (the worst) Brexit scenario. In contradiction to previous reports, the analysis suggests that London would be more, rather than less, resilient to a hard Brexit than its regional counterparts. Agriculture (-38% GVA) and construction (-7%) are the worst-hit sectors in the event that we leave the customs union and single market. However, this may be a moot point as the number of commentators predicting this scenario is falling and, accordingly, economic optimism is rising.