Growth

The Chancellor noted that in 2016 the UK will be the strongest growing economy in the G7. The OBR forecasts show that growth rates will drop in 2017 (to 1.7%); however still remaining level with Germany and ahead of France. This is a world away from the ‘Severe Shock’ scenario modelled by the Treasury pre-Brexit (-1.3%; 2017) and even wildly different from their ‘Moderate Shock’ scenario (0.0%; 2017). Should this fill us with confidence about the UK’s resilience to Brexit; or doubt about the accuracy of forecasts in this new uncertain environment?